Prince-Value-Bet
Football Tipster
It all began over 30 years ago with a notepad, a pencil, a calculator, and the Kicker sports magazine. Even back then, I had a strong interest in football and its associated betting. During that time, I filled out countless tip sheets for the good old Elevenfold Bet in football pools since there were no other alternatives available. Obtaining reliable information about football betting was also quite challenging, and the odds were fixed. Any events that occurred after the selection of bets had no influence on the odds. As a result, my successes were quite limited. As the digital age arrived, things became more transparent for me online, and the odds now reacted to events surrounding the teams as the betting market gained the upper hand. I could now specifically search for value odds. This occurs when the odds provided by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the
outcome, thus offering added value. In 2011, I founded my own betting service, prince-value-bet. For over 12 years now, I have been delivering profitable football bets to all my members right at their doorstep.
RESULTS and Performance
BETTING APPROACH
My focus lies in the careful analysis of crucial parameters on the field. This includes expected goals (xG), which represent the anticipated number of goals. It has little to do with the gut instinct bets made at the Oddset stand in the kiosk. In club football, expected goals are a performance metric used to evaluate the performance of football teams and players. xG can be used to indicate the probability of a goalscoring opportunity. I compare the xG data to the offered betting odds in order to identify value odds in the top leagues. The decisive criterion for placing a bet is always the betting odds themselves. If the betting odds do not offer value, I do not select those games! The betting odds, with their expected value, are always an indication of whether one will end up with a loss or a profit. The actual returns correlate with the closing odds (Closer), meaning they depend on them. If one fails to consistently outperform the closing odds of Asian bookmakers, such as Pinnacle Sports, it has been proven that no profit will be achieved! To be profitable in such an efficient market like the top leagues, one must either possess better information than the rest of the market or interpret the generally available information better